{"id":24264,"date":"2025-03-31T11:28:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T09:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/?p=24264"},"modified":"2025-06-18T12:39:16","modified_gmt":"2025-06-18T10:39:16","slug":"electoral-tendencies-of-the-czech-public-march-2025-weekly-election-model-week-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/electoral-tendencies-of-the-czech-public-march-2025-weekly-election-model-week-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – March 2025 \u2013 Weekly election model \u2013 week 12"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The research sample is representative of the Czech adult (18+) population and was created using quota sampling; the quotas regard the participants\u2019 sex, age, education, region of residence, and the population size of their place of residence. We further strengthen the representativeness of the sample by weighting for deviations from the main quota characteristics, as well as weighting for past voting behaviour in the October 2021 Chamber of Deputies election, the January 2023 second round of the presidential election, and for social\/employment status. Data collection using online interviewing (CAWI method) of participants registered with the Czech National Panel is provided by the STEM\/MARK agency, which, like STEM and the Czech National Panel, is a member of the SIMAR association of research agencies and follow its industry standards.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of the final week of polling, SPD, Trikolora, PRO, and the Free Citizens’ Party announced that they would run together on SPD\u2019s candidate lists in the upcoming elections. This change will be reflected in the 13th STEM model next week. Recent developments in international politics also appear to be starting to influence the results, particularly the positions of political parties on the defence of the Czech Republic, the war in Ukraine, and events surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The eighth election model of the series was based on the responses of 1,571 participants. The respondents were interviewed in 3 waves between the 7th<\/sup> and 25th<\/sup> of February 2025. During these weeks the spring school holidays took place, always in different parts of the country.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the best possible results, we check the attention of respondents when filling out the survey, check the logical link between the answers to questions, and we exclude survey answers that were completed suspiciously quickly. The statistical error of the sample is around \u00b11 percentage point for the smallest parties, and around \u00b13 percentage points for the larger parties.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reported preferences and model are part of a unique research series, The Weekly Model, produced by STEM for CNN Prima News. Detailed description of the methodology can be found on our website: <\/em>
https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/?metodologie=tydenni-model-pro-cnn-prima-news-2025<\/em><\/a>
<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

SUMMARY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The STEM research institute, in cooperation with CNN Prima NEWS, provides the public with a new weekly election model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election model created by the STEM analytical institute based on data from the second half of March continues to be led by the ANO movement, although it has gradually weakened over the course of the month. In the current model, ANO would receive 31.1% of the vote, which would translate into 75 seats. Among the governing parties, the SPOLU coalition remains the strongest. Other parties that would currently enter the Chamber of Deputies include the STAN movement, SPD, Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b, the STA\u010cILO! movement, and the Pirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The STA\u010cILO! movement, with an observed 6.3% share of the votes, would gain 12 seats. Its supporters are primarily found among older age groups and people without a university education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b <\/a>party has significant potential, and the share of committed voters grew gradually over February. With a 5% result, the party would narrowly make it into the Czech lower chamber, earning 9 seats. \u201cThe support for the Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b is not yet consolidated. Whether it can be stabilized and the party can expand its voter base will be shown by further developments over the course of the campaign,\u201d adds Martin Kratochv\u00edl. He notes that Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b show higher levels of support among the youngest age group, people with a secondary education, and men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPD continues to dominate the protest vote segment, currently polling at 8.9%, which would earn them 19 seats. \u201cThe current model still does not account for the officially announced alliance of SPD with Trikolora, the PRO movement, and the Free Citizens\u2019 Party, but it seems that support from these three smaller parties is already naturally flowing toward SPD,\u201d explains STEM analyst Martin Kratochv\u00edl. The movement traditionally performs well among people without a high school diploma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SPOLU coalition would reach 20% in the second half of March, representing its best result since the beginning of the year and a potential gain of 46 seats. \u201cThe rise in support visible throughout March may be linked to the coalition\u2019s stance and public statements regarding international issues and the security and defense of the Czech Republic,\u201d Kratochv\u00edl adds. Support for SPOLU remains evenly distributed across genders and age groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The STAN movement also recorded a slight increase in March, reaching 11.8%, which would translate into 25 seats. STAN\u2019s main voter base is among younger and the youngest voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pirate Party has shown highly fluctuating results in STEM\u2019s model since the beginning of the year, ranging between 5 and 7%. Over March, their support has gradually declined to just under 6%. The Pirates\u2019 position remains very uncertain; notably, their core voter base is significantly smaller than it was last year. \u201cOnly the coming weeks will show whether the Pirates can clearly overcome the setbacks from previous crises and launch a credible campaign,\u201d Kratochv\u00edl concludes.
<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PARTY PREFERENCES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The party preferences show the distribution of political preferences among the entire population of respondents, i.e. including undecideds<\/strong> and people who are unable or unwilling to name a party preference or openly say they will not vote for any party<\/strong>. STEM asks for political preferences using an open-ended question and records the participants\u2019 answers verbatim. Thus, we list groupings mentioned by the participants alongside undecideds and negative responses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The preferences for each party are lower<\/strong> than would be expected from the actual election result, which is decided only by the voters who actually turn out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you voted, which party would you vote for next week in an election for the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic?\u201d<\/em><\/strong>
(data for the second half of March 2025;
open question \u2013 no selection from a list of parties or coalitions)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ATTENTION: PARTY PREFERENCES DO NOT REFLECT THE ELECTION RESULT!
\u00a0THE TOTAL MAY NOT ADD UP TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VOTER MOTIVATION<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the latest since the 2013 Czech general elections, we have seen significant changes in the electoral strategy of various voter groups. The number of sworn party voters has declined, the spectrum of political parties and movements has grown, and there are more frequent changes of party preference. The fluctuation between voters and non-voters is intensifying and the proportion of those who decide whether and whom to vote for only shortly before the elections is increasing. The peak of these phenomena so far was the 2021 parliamentary election \u2013 six months before the elections, a third of potential voters had been unsure about their participating in the election or who they might vote for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, uncertainty is becoming increasingly important in estimating political preferences and the fluctuations of electoral sentiment, and it makes sense to look at this phenomenon more closely and analyse its role. We have therefore prepared an overview of the groups of the Czech adult population according to their motivation to vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We construct an indicator of motivation to vote<\/strong> based on three questions:
a) willingness to vote in the upcoming election,
b) general interest in political events,
c) the strength of the relationship with the preferred party or movement (if the participant does prefer any).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    We thus find that the Czech public can be divided into three groups in terms of voting motivation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Less than half (45\u201350 %) of people go to the polls regularly, their participation in the parliamentary elections is very likely and they are mostly clear about whom they want to vote for.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. One third of the population (30\u201335 %) is either unsure about their participation in the elections, hesitates about their participation or is unclear about their choice of party.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Approximately a fifth of the population is made out of people who do not vote and their motivation to vote is negligible.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      People eligible to vote
      grouped by motivation to vote in the second half of March 2025 [%]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The sum of the share of Stable voters and Undecided voters (80% in the second half of March) can be considered the theoretical maximum turnout that could be achieved in the Czech Republic currently. The overview of the motivation to vote further serves as a starting point for the construction of the turnout and voting model.
      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      WILLINGNESS TO VOTE FOR INDIVIDUAL PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In addition to stating direct support for a party or movement in an open-ended question, the research also inquires about willingness to vote for the main Czech political groupings. On a seven-point scale, participants can express the degree of \u201cacceptability\u201d for each of the parties, movements or coalitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Willingness to vote for respective political parties and movements
      \u2013 second half of March 2025
      <\/strong>\u201cIf the election for the Chamber of Deputies were held today, would you\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The maximum hypothetical amount of support, the so-called potential<\/strong> for a given grouping, is calculated as the sum of the weights of the votes of those who chose one of the top three answers (\u201cDefinitely would vote\u201d, \u201dRather would vote\u201d vote and \u201cMaybe would vote\u201d) for this grouping and who also belong to the groups of Stable and Undecided voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      ELECTION MODEL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      It is not easy to build an election model because it is difficult to estimate various parameters: which survey participants will actually participate in the election, whether the voters\u2019 turnout motivation will be similar to the previous election or not, how last-minute emotions will be reflected in the election result and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      In surveys, members of the public like to present themselves as responsible citizens: when we pose a direct question, we find that up to 70% of voters want to participate in elections, but the actual turnout does not usually reach that level. Thus, the key to model electoral outcomes and voting patterns is to estimate the behaviour of hesitant and undecided citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      We follow a three-step process while calculating the STEM election model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      First<\/strong>, we identify the main groups within the public based on their motivation to vote<\/strong>, as described above. We do not take into account<\/strong> the answers of survey participants identified as Non-voters, and for the remaining two groups (Stable voters and Undecided) we estimate<\/strong> their probability of participation<\/strong> in a hypothetical parliamentary election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      We calculate the likelihood of participation in the election based on the participants\u2019 answers to questions related to their long-term, past, and expected voting behaviour:
      a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 long-term tendency to vote,
      b)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 participation in past parliamentary elections,
      c)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 declared participation in a hypothetical general election the following week.
      This probability ranges from 0 to 1, depending on how strong the participant\u2019s voting motivation is. The weight of each participant\u2019s vote in the model then corresponds to the probability of them turning up to the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The turnout probability values are used to recalculate the data for the Stable voters group. This yields a new data set, which we refer to as Loyal voters<\/strong>. We treat these as the bottom threshold for the hypothetical support for the respective electoral groupings (parties and movements). In other words, these are the supporters that an electoral grouping is very unlikely to lose in the medium term, and whose support would likely only be shaken by some major scandal. Loyal voters form the basis of the STEM electoral model, as they represent about two-thirds of the votes in the model. With a modelled turnout of 58%, they make up about 42 percentage points.

      Undecided voters contribute the remaining third of the votes in the model (in the second half of March 2025, this is about 16 percentage points). These votes are weighed not only based on the participant\u2019s probability of turnout but also based on the probability of them voting for the parties they are seriously considering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Figure of the process of selecting participants for the model<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      STEM Election Model
      \u2013\u00a0simulated election outcome under a modelled turnout of 58%<\/strong>
      Second half of March 2025 (results in %)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Election model, loyal voters, maximal hypothetical vote share
      <\/strong>second half of March 2025 (results in %)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON THE STEM ELECTION MODEL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      We can estimate the number of seats for each political grouping if we apply the legal rules for converting vote shares (as given by the STEM model) into seats in the Chamber of Deputies and estimate voter behaviour patterns in the respective electoral constituencies and the national turnout level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The seat redistribution system in the Czech Republic traditionally favours parties with the highest share of the vote. This so-called \u201cwinner\u2019s bonus\u201d tends to be larger the greater the gap between the leading party and the others. An advantage is also held by parties with evenly distributed support across regions, or by those that perform strongly in the four most populous regions\u2014Moravian-Silesian, South Moravian, Central Bohemian, and Prague\u2014where nearly half (94) of all seats are allocated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Changes in support over the last couple of weeks show that it is not only shifts in party preferences, but also the number of parties surpassing the five-percent threshold that plays a key role in the results. Moreover, even changes within the margin of statistical error can significantly affect the final distribution of seats. The results of the model should therefore be seen not only as a reflection of the uncertainty of mathematical calculations but also as evidence that, in the Czech electoral system, every vote can count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      According to the latest STEM model, the ANO movement continues to clearly dominate, securing 75 seats. However, this is a lower seat count compared to previous models, due to both a further decline in support within the STEM model and the increasing number of parties projected to enter the Chamber of Deputies. Under the current distribution of power, despite ANO receiving significantly more votes, it would gain only four more seats than it did in the last parliamentary elections in 2021. Nevertheless, ANO maintains a stable position across regions, benefiting from a well-distributed voter base, which gives it a notable advantage in seat conversion. For now, ANO benefits the most when fewer parties make it into Parliament, as this boosts its seat share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The SPOLU coalition remains in second place, having improved its position to 46 seats. The STAN movement has also made slight gains, and would now win 25 seats. In contrast, the Pirates have weakened again compared to previous models and would hypothetically receive 10 seats. SPD currently stands at 19 seats, which is one of its stronger results. The movement continues to maintain a stable core of supporters evenly spread across the country, which helps cushion the impact of any shifts in overall support on its seat total. Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b would match their highest seat count to date this week, with 13 seats. The STA\u010cILO! movement also remains above the five-percent threshold and would gain 12 seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Seat projection in case the STEM election model matched the actual results<\/strong>
      \u2013 for the second half of March 2025 (200 seats in total)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      TRENDS IN THE STEM ELECTION MODEL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      STEM election model results since the last (2021) general election [%]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Note: For parties that were ran as members of electoral coalitions in 2021, we calculated the individual parties\u2019 vote share based on a STEM study undertaken shortly after the 2021 election.<\/em>
      *Until October 2024, the result of the SPOLU coalition was measured as the sum of the coalition\u2019s three constituent parties.<\/em>
      **Measured as KS\u010cM until November 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Weekly election model by STEM for parties with support above 10 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025, weeks 1\u201312, N>1500, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Weekly election model by STEM for parties with support below 10 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025, weeks 1\u201312, N>1500, CAWI<\/em><\/strong>
      <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      ELECTION MODEL RESULTS BY SELECTED INDICATORS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      We can examine voter behaviour in the election model grouped by generic socio-demographics. It is good to keep in mind that when splitting the election model into demographics, the statistical error also increases, and thus these sub-models should be interpreted with caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Election model split by sociodemographic categories
      <\/strong>Second half of March 2025 [%]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025:12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      OVERLAPS BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL VOTER BASES OF THE SELECTED PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The model shows the current support for the parties, which is made out of, to varying degrees, by loyal and undecided voters. To better understand what is happening in politics, it is useful to assess the relative proximity of the parties, i.e. where each party can potentially gain additional support from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 12, March 2025, N=1550, CAWI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Note: The number under the party name given in the column represents the party\u2019s electoral potential. The numbers in the cells are the shares of participants who belong to the potential of both the party given in the row and the party given in the column.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      MAIN FINDINGS<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. STEM is publishing a weekly election model constructed using a methodology that takes into account the increased level of uncertainty and people\u2019s hesitancy to vote.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Around one-fifth of the public are non-voters, while two-fifths to one-half usually vote and are usually clear about whom they will support. The remaining third are unsure about coming to the polls or unclear about their choice of party. It is this group and the estimation of their voting behaviour that is crucial for voting patterns and the electoral outcome.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. The model captures the current sentiments among voters and the possible distribution of power that would result from a hypothetical election to the Chamber of Deputies if it were held in the second half of February. The parties and movements are slowly starting up their election campaigns and specify their intentions. Some have already announced joint election efforts, and further mergers or alliances may still occur.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. The model shows the current support of the parties, which is made out of, to varying degrees by, loyal and undecided voters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      5. The model does not yet take into account the recently announced alliance of SPD, PRO, Trikol\u00f3ra and the Svobodn\u00ed party.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      6. Take note: the election model does not predict how the actual election will turn out but rather captures the current sentiments and estimates how the election might turn out if it were held now. The election year has always been a dynamic one, and there have been large changes in party preferences in the run-up to all recent general elections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      7. Throughout March, the ANO movement experienced a gradual decline. While its support ranged between 33% and 36% earlier in the year, it would now receive \u201conly\u201d 31%, marking its worst result of the year in STEM\u2019s weekly model. Nevertheless, ANO remains unchallenged as the leading voice of the opposition, with a broad base of loyal voters. Overlap in voter potential indicates that several other parties\u2014mainly SPD, Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b, and STA\u010cILO!\u2014could compete for a portion of ANO\u2019s supporters. ANO draws significant support from citizens without a high school diploma and people over the age of 60. However, it does not perform particularly poorly in any specific sociodemographic group.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      8. In contrast, the SPOLU coalition saw growing support throughout March, reaching 20% in the current model. Since the beginning of the year, its support has fluctuated between 16% and 20%. SPOLU continues to enjoy relatively balanced support across age and gender groups.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      9. The STAN movement would get just under 12% of the vote in the second half of March. Its support has been evolving in the STEM model since the beginning of the year and is now once again approaching its best results to date. STAN\u2019s core voter base consists primarily of younger and youngest voters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      10. The consolidation of support for governing parties and the weakening of ANO may already reflect the positions and statements of political leaders regarding the international situation and issues of national security and defense. Government parties and the Pirates perform well among people with university degrees or high school diplomas, but their position is weaker among those without a high school education.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      11. The governing coalition parties and the Pirates, taken together, are still polling below their combined result from the previous parliamentary elections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      12. The SPD movement continues to compete for the role of the main representative of protest votes. In the current STEM model, it holds nearly 9% of the vote. With the further weakening of the PRO movement and Trikolora, we are likely witnessing a natural consolidation of support shifting toward SPD. However, it is still too early to fully assess the impact of the newly announced alliance between SPD and the smaller parties. The merger of the four parties on SPD\u2019s candidate list will be fully reflected in next week\u2019s model. SPD continues to share a large portion of its potential voter base with ANO, and, traditionally, it maintains strong support among people without a high school diploma.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      13. Looking at aggregated data since the beginning of the year, we can estimate the willingness of voters from PRO, Trikolora, and the Svobodn\u00ed Party to support the alliance with SPD. SPD\u2019s average model result has been around 8% since the beginning of the year. The total potential gain from the other three parties is estimated at 3 to 4 percentage points. Of that, around 2 points seem almost certain for SPD, while another 1.5 points may require further convincing from the leaders of the allied parties. SPD is seen as a problematic choice by some supporters of the Svobodn\u00ed Party.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      14. Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b confirmed their highest-ever result from the previous week in the second half of March, again surpassing the 6% threshold in the STEM model. It appears that the party is gradually building a more stable voter base, which could help consolidate its performance in the long-term or even allow for further growth. The party continues to receive its strongest support from men and younger age groups.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      15. The STA\u010cILO! movement currently polls at 6.3%, indicating it has stabilized above the 5% threshold. Since the beginning of the year, its support has fluctuated between 5% and 7%. The movement\u2019s consistent performance above the threshold is likely supported by the solid and established voter base of the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KS\u010cM), the driving force behind STA\u010cILO!. Its supporters are primarily older voters and individuals without a high school diploma. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      16. Since the beginning of the year, the Pirate Party has shown extraordinarily volatile results in STEM\u2019s models, fluctuating between 5% and 7%. Over the course of March, their support gradually declined to just under 6%. The Pirates\u2019 position remains highly uncertain, with a particularly concerning trend being their significantly smaller core of loyal voters compared to last year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      17. SOCDEM and the P\u0159\u00edsaha movement are polling between 2% and 3%. According to current STEM models, these parties would likely not make it into the Chamber of Deputies. SOCDEM has long struggled to re-engage its former supporters or attract new ones. P\u0159\u00edsaha has also failed to build on its solid performance in last year’s European Parliament elections. Both parties are currently in discussions regarding their potential participation in the upcoming autumn elections. SOCDEM has ruled out cooperation with the STA\u010cILO! movement, while P\u0159\u00edsaha will no longer continue its coalition with Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      18. The Green Party remains a second or even third choice option for supporters of the governing coalition or the Pirates. As a result, it enjoys only low levels of realized support and lacks a stable voter base. It remains uncertain whether the Greens would be able to surpass their 2021 election result in a real election scenario.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      19. The potential margin of error is +\/- 1 percentage point for smaller parties and +\/- 3.0 percentage points for the largest ones. The results reflect public sentiment during the time of data collection, which took place in the second half of March 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        The STEM Research Institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of march.
        \nIf elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, securing around 31 percent of the vote. However, the movement\u2019s support has been gradually weakening throughout March. In contrast, the SPOLU coalition has been gaining ground in March and would come in second with 20 percent. The situation for other parties is also shifting. The STAN movement slightly strengthened again in March and is just below 12 percent. The SPD stabilized its support just under 9 percent, though the current model does not yet account for its alliance with Trikolora, PRO, and Svobodn\u00ed. The Motorist\u00e9 sob\u011b party has recently gained support above the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Chamber and is building up its voter base. Also hovering above the five-percent threshold is the STA\u010cILO! movement, whose support has remained relatively stable. Support for the Pirates has fluctuated between 5 and 7 percent since the beginning of the year, and they would now reach just under 6 percent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":22889,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[640],"tags":[692,722],"class_list":["post-24264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policies","tag-electoral-tendecies","tag-weekly-election-model"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24264\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stem.cz\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}