Within the context of current developments in Europe, Czech citizens are becoming increasingly concerned about Islamic fundamentalism, the situation in the Middle East and the influx of migrants in particular. According to the public, both terrorism and international organized crime represent stable risks. The rise in concern over the threat of politics in Russia, documented in May, was not confirmed in the September survey.The STEM survey cited here was conducted on a representative sample of the Czech population aged 18 and over from 18 to 28 September 2015. Respondents were selected using a quota sampling method, with some 925 people taking part in the survey. Information from STEM Trends Survey 9/2015. Issued on 15. 10. 2015In the September survey STEM asked citizens to rank ten selected threats that could pose a danger to the country. The public was asked to rank their concerns on a scale of one to nine where one indicated “no threat” and nine indicated a “very significant threat.” The results of the September survey can be compared with the results of a similar survey carried out in May of this year.Islamic fundamentalism is perceived as a significant threat for most citizens. Indeed three-fifths of the population (59 %) gave it the maximum rating on a scale of one to nine. A total of 85 % of citizens considered it a significant threat, ranking it 7, 8 or 9. This proportion is slightly higher than in the May survey (by 3 percentage points).Furthermore, the number of people who perceive the influx of refugees as a significant threat was up from 71 % in the May survey to 76 % in September. The fear of migrants thus represents the second highest perceived risk. A similarly high proportion of citizens feel threatened by terrorism and international organized crime, but these perceived threats have not gained in magnitude since May.However, concerns over the development of the situation in the Middle East rose (up from 59 % to 65 %).In May we pointed to a significant change in the rating of Russia as a security risk compared with previous surveys. The proportion of people who perceived the politics of Russia as a significant threat to their country in May had more than doubled compared with 2011. This change is clearly linked to Russian policy towards Ukraine and the general sense of threat from Russia. However, in the September survey the proportion of citizens who regarded the politics of Russia as a significant threat decreased (from 59 % to 43 %). Now more people consider poverty in developing countries as a significant threat to our country (49 %). The politics of Russia is now considered a significant threat by almost the same proportion of the population as the politics of the United States. At the same time there has been a slight increase in the perceived threat of US foreign policy since the May survey.The reason for the decline in concern over Russian foreign policy can be attributed to the diminishing amount of information on the situation in Ukraine. The public has therefore become accustomed to reading about it as less significant issue. Furthermore, there has been an escalation of security risks in other hotspots which has manifested itself in an increase in concern over migrants, Islamic fundamentalism and developments in the Middle East. Indeed, the September STEM survey found that more than half of Czech citizens consider the influx of refugees to be currently the most important problem facing their country.
Comparison of the ratings of threats to our country – March 2011, May 2015 and September 2015
(Comparison of the proportion of 7, 8 and 9 answers on a scale of 1-9, where 1= “no threat” and 9= “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trends 2011/3, 2015/5, 2015/9
How great is the threat to our country? – September 2015
(Rating on a scale of 1-9, where 1= “no threat” and 9= “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trends 9/2015, 925 respondents
In general, the over-60s are somewhat more sensitive to the various security risks facing our country, but these differences are not significant. Differences in terms of age group are for the most part fairly insignificant, even if you allow for the differences in ratings compared with the May survey (see graph below).
Comparison of the ratings for the influx of refugees as a threat to our country by age
(Proportion of 7, 8 or 9 answers in % on a scale of 1-9, where 1= “no threat” and 9= “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trends 2015/5, 2015/9
Likewise, the level of fear of the politics of Russia also depends on respondents’ age: older respondents are more likely to consider Russia a significant threat to the country than the under-30s. The most significant decline in the level of fear of the politics of Russia is also for this age group (a decline of 21 %).
Comparison of the ratings for the politics of Russia as a threat to our country by age
(Proportion of 7, 8 or 9 answers in % on a scale of 1-9, where 1= “no threat” and 9= “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trends 2015/5, 2015/9
The political affiliation of respondents largely affects how they rate security risks. Those to the right of the political spectrum mostly rate the risk of the threats named in the survey as less serious than those to the left or center of the spectrum. Furthermore, for the most part, the level of fear of right-wing citizens has not increased since May (see graph).
Comparison of the ratings for the influx of refugees as a threat to our country by political affiliation
(proportion of 7, 8 or 9 answers in % on a scale of 1-9, where 1 = “no threat”, 9 = “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trend 2015/5, 2015/9
An exception to the above correlation is the public’s perception of the threat of politics in Russia which, on the contrary, is more frequently perceived as a significant threat by right-wing individuals. Despite the fact that the level of fear of the politics of Russia has fallen across the political spectrum, the politically-intensified differences between left and right remain.
Comparison of the ratings for the foreign policy of Russia as a threat to our country by political affiliation
(proportion of 7, 8 or 9 answers in % on a scale of 1-9, where 1 = “no threat”, 9 = “a very significant threat”)
Source: STEM, Trend 2015/5, 2015/9
In light of the strong media coverage of the refugee crisis, we examined whether respondents’ perceptions of security risks differ depending on the television channels they watch, specifically the news. The survey found that privately owned channels TV Nova and FTV Prima viewers perceive the threat of the influx of refugees and that of terrorism as a significant threat slightly more frequently than the national broadcaster Czech Television (ČT) viewers and those who do not watch the news at all (ČT is the national broadcaster, TV NOVA and FTV Prima are privately-owned channels).
How the influx of refugees is rated as a threat to our country according to which main evening news programmes are most frequently watched by respondents
Source: STEM, Trends 2015/9, 925 respondents
In general people who do not watch the news at all perceive the other security risks on the list as less serious. In terms of television channel preference, there were no significant differences between the fear perceptions of respondents.
How the situation in the Middle East is rated as a threat to our country according to which main evening news programmes are most frequently watched by respondents
Source: STEM, Trends 2015/9, 925 respondents
