Three years of the Russian war against Ukraine as seen by the Czech public
Since the beginning of 2022, we can see that the Czech public debate on Russia’s war against Ukraine has gone through several phases, reflecting the changes in public interest and attitude towards both sides of the conflict.
The period of roughly six months after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 could be described, with a bit of exaggeration, as the peak of solidarity with Ukraine. Public interest was very strong, with nearly four-fifths of Czechs following the conflict. The shock of a new major war in Europe was evident in the public debate, and solidarity with a defending Ukraine prevailed.
During the summer and autumn of 2022, the Czech public gradually accepted the war as an existing fact. Public interest in the conflict began to decline slightly. Support for Ukraine continued to be the majoritarian stance, but the first signs of fatigue began to appear. Moreover, in the autumn, the consequences of the war became apparent in the form of fears of energy shortages and rising energy prices.
In 2023, the consequences of the war became fully apparent. The Czech Republic experienced unprecedented price rises, affecting mainly universal needs in the form of food, energy and housing costs. The war in Ukraine also entered a less dynamic phase and the front seemingly stabilised. Public interest thus turned more and more to domestic issues. Alongside this, voices questioning the size and form of Czech aid to Ukraine and the reasonability of sanctions against Russia have become louder within the public debate.
From 2024 up until now, we have seen a further decline in interest in the events in Ukraine. The public is growing tired of the war and of reporting on it. Voices sceptical of continued military support for Ukraine continue to grow and the Czech public prefers an end to the war, even at the cost of concessions on the Ukrainian side.
Most of the Czech public would like to see a quick end to the war in Ukraine, with scenarios guaranteeing Ukraine’s international security preferred
An important piece of context influencing the Czech position on Russia’s war against Ukraine is the extent to which the public is interested in the ongoing conflict. Only 23% of people said they were “very much” or “a lot” interested in the conflict, with 39% moderately interested, 23% not very interested and 15% not at all interested. The “moderate” option should be understood to mean that people take in information as it reaches them from their personal media mix, i.e., they do not actively seek out the information much. Interest in information about the conflict increases with age. “However, this is mainly due to the fact that older people are generally more active when it comes to actively seeking out news,” STEM analyst Jiří Táborský explains. So far, public interest has slowly declined since the beginning of the war.1 In the latest STEM survey, conducted in January, we see a slight increase in people’s attention, which may be linked to some extent to Donald Trump retaking the office of the US President, which gives the possibility of a change in the dynamics of the war, or perhaps the prospect that it could be brought to an end in the near future.
“How interested are you in the ongoing war in Ukraine?” [%]
The survey also explored how people would like the conflict in Ukraine to develop, and how likely they think various hypothetical scenarios are. There is about 10% of people who consider a full surrender of Ukraine to be the most likely – a significant minority. The proportion of those who prefer this scenario is similar (8%). The opposite outcome, that is, Ukraine pushing Russia out with Western help and regaining lost territories, is similarly unlikely in the public’s view (6%), but has the second strongest support (29%). The scenario of exchanging Ukrainian territory for peace and security guarantees for Ukraine without joining NATO has the most support among Czechs (37%). It is also considered realistic by more than a third of people. “In general, we can say that the Czech public best prefers those solutions that would mean a quick end to the war, and at the same time – to some extent – preserve an independent Ukraine,” Táborský adds.
“Given the current situation, which of the following possible outcomes of the war do you consider the most likely?” [%] – participants can choose one answer
“And which of these ends of the war would you personally prefer?” [%] – participants can choose one answer
Following the example of the Gallup Institute, we have also been asking a simplified question since 2023 regarding whether people are generally in favour of supporting Ukraine until it regains territory even though this will prolong the conflict, or whether they prefer a quick end to the conflict at the cost of losing territory. The time trends show that, in the long run, a majority of people are in favour of a quick end to the conflict, and this position has further strengthened by early 2025 with 72% Czechs supporting a quick end to the conflict even at the cost of territorial concessions. This is consistent with the findings mentioned earlier in this report, but also with the change in attitudes in some other countries. For example, the US had long had a clear majority of people willing to support Ukraine up to a victorious end of the war, but that proportion faltered by the end of last year, as per the Gallup Institute.2
“Which of these approaches of the Czech Republic towards the war in Ukraine do you lean towards supporting more?” [%]
We also inquired about the stances towards the extent of military aid provided by the Czech Republic to Ukraine. The Czech public is divided in this regard, with just under half of the people (47%) considering the country’s military aid to Ukraine to be too large and a third considering it adequate (“just enough”). Only 4% perceive it as “not enough” and the remaining 15% say they are unable to judge the situation. Since last June, the proportion of those who rate the extent of military aid as “too much” has increased. “It is important to keep in mind that we are talking only about military aid. We know from other surveys that the Czech public is much more favourably disposed towards other forms of aid to Ukraine, especially humanitarian and reconstruction aid,” Táborský says.
“And how would you assess the military aid provided to Ukraine by the Czech Republic?” [%]
The unprecedented refugee wave and the Czech public
After the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, the Czech Republic became one of the main destinations for Ukrainian refugees. Gradually, more than half a million Ukrainians arrived to the country, and it is estimated that more than 350,000 Ukrainians have stayed in the Czech Republic.3 Similarly to the debate about the war itself, the Czech public debate about Ukrainian refugees who have come to the country because of the war has also changed over time. Attitudes about our ability to cope with the refugee wave have also developed.
In the initial period, i.e., until the autumn of 2022, Czech society has shown extraordinary solidarity and determination to help the incoming refugees. The government, NGOs, and individuals alike have been actively involved in providing assistance to the refugees. Regional Assistance Centres were set up to coordinate support and integration of the arriving, and many people provided their homes and apartments to accommodate those in need. The tone of the public and media debate was largely positive and supportive.
With the continued arrival of refugees, the prospect that the conflict is unlikely to end quickly, and the growing domestic problems, the public discussion in the autumn and winter of 2022 began to turn to the practical challenges associated with the refugees’ longer-term stay and integration into Czech society. These were primarily issues of providing employment, housing, education, and health care for the arriving. According to PAQ Research, while two-thirds of economically active refugees had jobs, many were working below their qualifications and faced low wages.4
From the beginning of 2023 at the latest, public interest in the refugee situation began to decline, while the debate gradually polarised. Concerns regarding the economy, the availability of public services, and security intensified in society.
In response to the continued presence of refugees, the Czech government has adopted a series of legislative measures in recent years, collectively nicknamed “Lex Ukraine”, which have extended temporary protection for refugees and gradually adjusted the level of financial support and the status of refugees in the Czech social and legal system. The public debate now focuses on long-term integration, with an emphasis on refugees’ material independence, integration into the labour market, and support in housing and education.
People continue to agree with the refugees staying in the country, but fears regarding impacts recede but slowly
Overall support for the Czech Republic continuing to allow Ukrainian refugees to stay remains slightly above 50% in the long term. It is now almost at the same level (54%) as last June. We have been asking the citizens a similar question since the spring of 2022, and in the initial phase, approximately two-thirds of the public agreed to accept the refugees. We observe above-average support among the university educated (69%) and the well-off (68%), to single out some examples. Conversely, we see below-average support among the poorly-off (37%) or those without a Maturita-level high school education (44%). Differences by age are not significant, but men are slightly more welcoming of Ukrainian refugees than women.
“In your opinion, is it right that the Czech Republic continues to allow the Ukrainian refugees it has taken in to stay?” [%]
Source: STEM Trendy 2023–2025
As in previous surveys, there are more people in the Czech Republic who consider Ukrainian refugees to be a threat to the country’s development (49%) rather than an asset/benefit (34%). However, in the long term, the proportion of responses is slowly changing in favour of those who see the refugees as an asset. The groups that are more likely to see Ukrainian refugees as an asset are similar to those who are in favour of the refugees’ stay in general. “On this and other issues, we are seeing a gradual calming of the fears of the Czech public, which was relatively wary of Ukrainian refugees, especially during the inflation crisis. Now, fears are still present among a part of the public, but they are less intense,” STEM Research Director Jaromír Mazák adds.
“Do you think that the refugees coming from Ukraine are an asset or a threat to the Czech Republic’s future development?” [%]
Source: STEM Trendy 2023–2025
The view of what the government should do about the Ukrainian refugees has remained virtually unchanged since last summer. Almost three out of four people think the state should support the easy participation of Ukrainians in the labour market.5 At the same time, however, there is also an overwhelming public opinion that the state should ensure that no more new refugees come to the Czech Republic, represented by 64% of people. A majority of the public also thinks that the state should actively try to reduce the number of Ukrainian refugees in the country. “My reading is that people continue to have a nuanced perception of Ukrainian refugees. When they seek work and language integration, the openness of the Czech public towards them is quite high. However, some people feel that some refugees are not trying hard enough to integrate,” Mazák comments on the results.
“There are currently several hundred thousand Ukrainian citizens in the Czech Republic who have been granted temporary protection and temporary residence permits. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements concerning Ukrainians in the Czech Republic?” [%]
Among the several types of integration of Ukrainian refugees, the Czechs rate integration into the labour market as the best-achieved – half of the population perceive it as successful. In other areas, the assessment is weaker. Young people aged 18–29 are generally more optimistic about the success of integration (54% rate labour market integration and 40% cultural integration as successful), but are more critical about language integration (29%). Integration is generally better rated by the university-educated and those better off materially. “It is clear that the public’s reservations about refugees are largely shaped by the fear of ‘the foreign element’ and the language barrier, not by concerns about refugees taking jobs away from locals. Quite the contrary, we see that the public support for labour integration is strong. Nevertheless, there are groups for whom newly arrived Ukrainians are direct competition in the labour market. These are people in lower-paid professions, especially in manufacturing,” Jaromír Mazák elaborates.
“How would you assess the success of the integration of Ukrainian refugees into Czech society in the following areas?” [%]
Source: STEM – Trendy 01/2025
Finally, we presented the research participants with two fictional conversations, the first of which concerned an assessment of the Czech government’s handling of refugees and the second regarded how often and in what way the media report on refugees. This is an unusual format in surveying. We do not ask the participants’ opinion directly, but let them assess statements in an illustrative conversation, where each of the “spokespersons” takes one model position. This format allows us to complement and deepen our understanding of the Czech public’s thoughts on these topics. It also provides a good illustration of how unambiguous or ambiguous a position is in the public opinion.
Regarding the Czech government’s approach to refugees, the prevailing attitude among people is clearly that the government has done too much for the refugees and has focused on them at the expense of Czech nationals. 6 Although there are opinion differences among sociodemographic groups, they are not as pronounced compared to other question within the survey. We find the most differences by education (university graduates are more likely to say that the government has handled the situation well, while people without a Maturita high school exam are more likely to say that the government has done too much for the refugees), and to a lesser extent a similar pattern emerges in comparison by financial stability (with wealthier people evaluating the government’s actions more favourably).
“Please read the following fictional conversation. Do you agree with the respective speakers?” [%] – on the government’s behaviour towards Ukrainian refugees
The topic of the second fictional conversation was the level of media attention paid to the issue of Ukrainian refugees. The public’s attitudes are not as unambiguous here, yet the prevailing opinion is that the media coverage is disproportionately large. When comparing the population by sociodemographic groups, we do not find any that differ significantly from the attitude of the general public.
“Please read the following fictional conversation. Do you agree with the respective speakers?” [%] – on the media coverage of Ukrainian refugees
The cited research by the STEM research institute (www.stem.cz) was carried out on a representative sample of the Czech population aged 18 and older between 16 and 25 January 2025. Respondents were selected by the quota sampling method based off generic sociodemographic categories. The sample was further weighted for quota and past voting behaviour. 1,034 respondents answered the survey in a combination of online and face-to-face interviews (CAWI+CAPI). The report also uses data from other surveys of the Trendy (“Trends”) regular survey, which are conducted using the same methodology on a sample of more than 1,000 participants each.
