“And which of these ends of the war would you personally prefer?” [%]
Source: STEM 06/2024
“Given the current situation, how likely or unlikely do you consider the following options for ending the war:”
Other important data was also provided by the question on how interested people are in the ongoing conflict. Only 16% said they were “very much” or “a lot” interested in the conflict, 41 per cent were “moderately” interested, 26 per cent “not much interested” and 18 per cent “not at all” interested. “The moderate option should be understood to mean that people take in information as it reaches them from their individual media mix, i.e. they do not actively seek it out. The ‘not at all’ option is interesting, as further crosstabs suggest that these are more likely to be people who have strong opinions about the conflict in Ukraine but actively avoid information about it. One can imagine that when the topic of Ukraine comes on the news, they angrily switch to another programme,” Táborský explains, adding that interest in information about the conflict increases with age. “However, this is mainly due to the fact that older people are generally more active when it comes to actively seeking out news,” he explains.
“How interested are you in the ongoing war in Ukraine?”
The importance of declared interest in information about the war became particularly apparent when using this variable to classify other results. If we look at the preference of hypothetical conflict scenarios according to people’s interest in information about the war, the preference of extreme variants rise in connection to both of the polarities of interest. “It can be said that if you are intensely interested in the conflict or, on the contrary, actively reject information about it, this increases the likelihood that you will prefer the extreme variant of development in the form of total defeat of Ukraine. The explanation for this is that people with these views are on both sides of the spectrum, so it is not the case that those who are interested in the conflict are automatically on Ukraine’s side. Nevertheless, as you become more informed, the chances that you will prefer a total victory for Ukraine increase,” explains Táborský.
“And which of these ends of the war would you personally prefer?” by “How interested are you in the ongoing war in Ukraine?”
Another area of research was the so-called Czech Ammunition Initiative, under which the Czech Republic has been negotiating to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The survey repeated questions that had already been asked in March 2024, allowing for comparison over time. “The initiative continues to be frequently covered in the media, but at the same time it does not receive nearly as much high-level media placement as it used to, which is probably one of the factors why awareness of it, as well as approval for it have paradoxically declined. However, this is more of an apparent paradox. Most people are in favour of a quick end to the conflict and seem unable to distinguish the initiative from other arms deliveries to Ukraine, which logically reduces awareness of it as something specific,” Táborský explains.
“The Czech Republic is currently arranging funding from allied countries to purchase 800,000/more than a million artillery shells for Ukraine. Have you heard of this initiative?” (Note: Since April, Czech President Pavel has been talking about the number of 1,000,000 artillery shells, thus the question was modified.)
“In your opinion, is it right or wrong that the Czech Republic is arranging funding from allied countries to supply 800,000/more than a million artillery shells to Ukraine?” (Note: Since April, Czech President Pavel has been talking about the number of 1,000,000 artillery shells, thus the question was modified.)
The hypothesis that people do not distinguish the initiative from other arms supplies is supported by the fact that among those who pay no attention to information about the conflict, there is the highest proportion of those who are in favour of a quick end to the conflict at the cost of losing territory.
The very question of whether people are in favour of supporting Ukraine until the retaking of its original territory, even though this will prolong the conflict, versus the possibility of a quick end to the conflict at the cost of losing territories, is not new and therefore a comparison over time can be made. It clearly shows that attitudes are stable and in the long term the majority of people are in favour of a quick end to the conflict.
“Which of these approaches of the Czech Republic towards the war in Ukraine do you lean towards supporting more?” [%]
Source: STEM 06/2024
“Which of these approaches of the Czech Republic towards the war in Ukraine do you lean towards supporting more?” by “How interested are you in the ongoing war in Ukraine?” [%]
Source: STEM 06/2024
Another topic examined was the aid provided to Ukraine by Western countries, including the Czech Republic. The Czech public is significantly more inclined to the opinion that aid should be provided by other countries and the Czech Republic limit its aid or, in the case of military aid, stopped it altogether. “Intuitively, it may seem that this attitude reflects the Czech adage which says that ‘when someone else is scratched, it is not your blood that flows’, but other data also shows that people have concerns associated with offering the aid. A majority of the public believes that providing the aid threatens Czechia’s national security, which then logically reduces the willingness to help,” Táborský explains.
“When you think about the military aid that the countries of Western Europe and North America are providing to the invaded Ukraine, how would you assess this aid in terms of its appropriate extent?”
“And how would you assess the military aid provided to Ukraine by the Czech Republic in this regard?”
“To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? – The Czech Republic should no longer provide military aid to Ukraine.”
“In your opinion, what impact does the fact that we are helping Ukraine have on our national security?”
At the same time, it is remarkable to see the fear of the majority of the Czech public that if Ukraine falls, Russia will invade an EU country within ten years. As expected, this fear is the strongest among those who prefer a Ukrainian victory and lowest among those who would prefer Ukraine to fall.
“If Russia conquered Ukraine, how likely do you think it would be to invade an EU country in the next 10 years?” by “And which of these ends of the war would you personally prefer?”
Over time, there is a stable public opposition to the direct deployment of NATO troops to actively defend Ukraine. Even earlier surveys on the subject have shown that support for such a move is low, and the current data only confirms this. “It is clear that people associate this move with the possibility of an open NATO-Russia conflict,” Táborský says.
“NATO should deploy its military forces in Ukraine to actively defend it against the Russian invasion.”
Overall, however, the Czech Republic is not doing badly in the eyes of its own citizens in terms of support for Ukraine, especially given the very low trust in the government and the poor mood in society in general. “We let survey participants grade the Czech state’s international political approach to the war in Ukraine using the Czech grading system, where 1 marks an excellent performance and 5 marks a failure. The resulting grade of 2.88 is, comparatively, not bad at all,” concludes Táborský.
“How do you assess the Czech Republic’s international political approach to the war in Ukraine so far? Please rate the international policy of our country in this area using school grades, where 1 is an excellent grade and 5 is a failure.”
The cited research by the STEM research institute (www.stem.cz) was carried out on a representative sample of the Czech population aged 18 and older between 17 and 27 June 2024. Respondents were selected by the quota sampling method. The sample was further weighted for quota and past voting behaviour. 999 respondents answered the survey in a combination of online and face-to-face interviews (CAWI+CAPI). The report also uses data from other surveys of the Trendy (“Trends”) regular survey, which are conducted using the same methodology on a sample of about 1,000 respondents. More information on the methodology can be found in the research report on the stem.cz website.
