Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – AUGUST 2025 – Weekly election model – week 34

The survey was conducted during the holiday period, a time of lull in the pre-election campaign and lower public interest in political events. In the elections, a total of 26 parties and movements will ultimately compete. Registration for voting by mail, with just under 25,000 registered, fell short of expectations.

The selection of respondents is representative of the adult Czech population and was conducted using a quota method based on gender, age, education, region, and size of residence. Attention was also given to ensuring that the dataset reflects voting behavior in the last parliamentary elections in 2021, and it is weighted according to socioeconomic status, past voting behavior in the 2021 Chamber of Deputies elections, and the second round of the 2023 presidential election. Data collection was carried out online (CAWI) among respondents registered in the Czech National Panel, managed by the STEM/MARK agency, which, like STEM and the Czech National Panel, is a member of the professional organization SIMAR and conducts its projects in accordance with its standards.

The thirty-fourth electoral model in the series was based on responses from 1,548 respondents, surveyed in three waves between August 7 and 26, 2025. To ensure the highest quality results, we check respondents’ attention, the logical consistency of answers across questions, and exclude questionnaires that were completed suspiciously quickly. The statistical sampling error is approximately ±1.0 percentage point for the smallest parties and around ±3.0 percentage points for the larger parties.

The reported preferences and model are part of the unique Weekly Model research series, prepared by STEM for CNN Prima News. The methodology of this research is described in detail on our website: https://www.stem.cz/?metodologie=tydenni-model-pro-cnn-prima-news-2025

SUMMARY

The STEM research institute, in cooperation with CNN Prima NEWS, offers the public a new electoral model every week.

In the electoral model created by STEM based on data from the second half of August, the ANO movement continues to dominate, reaching 31.2% in the current model. “If the elections were to follow the current STEM model, ANO would be allocated 69 seats, which would be the lowest number this year—actually fewer than ANO currently holds in the Chamber of Deputies. This is caused by the combination of ANO’s relatively low percentage gain and the number of parties that would enter the Chamber of Deputies.” explains STEM analyst Martin Kratochvíl.

Among the governing forces, despite fluctuating results, the SPOLU coalition remains strongest. Other parties that would currently enter the Chamber of Deputies include SPD (with the support of Svobodní, PRO, and Trikolóra), STAN, the Pirates in cooperation with the Greens, STAČILO! in cooperation with SOCDEM, and, after a longer period, narrowly also Motoristé sobě.

In recent weeks, the STAČILO! movement has gradually lost the increased support it enjoyed at the turn of July and August. Nevertheless, if elections were held now, entry into the Chamber of Deputies would be almost certain with the current 6.5% support, translating into 12 seats.

The Motoristé sobě party, after a longer period, would narrowly reach the five-percent threshold, and with a result of 5.1%, would gain 7 seats. Support for the party remains closely tied to the successes and missteps of its main figure, Filip Turek. Motoristé sobě show higher support among the youngest age group as well as among men.

In the field of protest votes, the most significant remains the SPD movement, with the support of Svobodní, PRO, and Trikolóra. They currently have just under 13% support, which would correspond to 27 seats. The movement is traditionally strong among people without a high school diploma.

Support for the SPOLU coalition has fluctuated since the beginning of June in connection with the bitcoin affair, but there has not been a significant decline; rather, growth has simply stalled. The current 20.9% in the second half of August would translate into a potential gain of 46 seats. Support for the SPOLU coalition remains evenly distributed by gender and across age groups.

The STAN movement, with 10.1% support, would gain 20 seats. Earlier this year, their support reached over 12%. STAN’s main voter base is among university-educated individuals, and in younger age groups, they once again compete for support with the Pirates in cooperation with the Greens.

The Pirates, together with the Greens, would now receive 8.9%, one of their best results this year. Their support primarily comes from the youngest voters. “Support for the Pirates has improved significantly compared to the beginning of the year. There are several reasons: first, they entered into cooperation with the Greens, whose voters accepted this alliance. Additionally, they likely succeeded in effectively targeting both the topic and the campaign format toward younger voters, who are now ‘returning’ from STAN. Moreover, they are in a potentially advantageous position, as they are no longer part of the government, allowing them to differentiate themselves from all major political forces,” adds Kratochvíl.

So far, none of the new parties (GEN, the Generace movement, Voluntia, Volt, etc.) have gained traction among voters, and given the short time remaining until the elections, their success on election day is now rather unlikely.

PARTY PREFERENCES

Party preferences show the distribution of political sympathies across the entire sample of respondents, including undecided voters and those who are unable or unwilling to name a preferred party or openly state that they will not vote for any party. STEM asks about preferences using an open-ended question and records respondents’ answers literally. This way, named parties are presented alongside undecided or non-supportive responses.

Preferences for individual parties are lower than what would correspond to the actual election results, which are determined only by those who turn out to vote.

“If you voted, which party would you vote for next week in an election for the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic?”

(data for the second half of August 2025;
open question – no selection from a list of parties or coalitions)

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

ATTENTION: PARTY PREFERENCES DO NOT REFLECT THE ELECTION RESULT!  THE TOTAL MAY NOT ADD UP TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING

VOTER MOTIVATION

Since the 2013 parliamentary elections, we have been observing significant changes in the voting strategies of various voter groups. The number of loyal party voters is declining, while the range of political parties and movements is diversifying, leading more frequently to shifts in voter support. Fluctuation between voters and non-voters is increasing, and the proportion of those who decide whether and for whom to vote only shortly before the elections is increasing. The peak of these phenomena was seen in the last parliamentary elections, when, six months before the vote, one-third of potential voters were still undecided about participation or party choice.

Uncertainty thus becomes increasingly important when estimating political preferences and shifts in voter sentiment, and it now makes sense to examine it more closely and analyze its role. For this reason, we have prepared an overview of the distribution of the Czech adult population according to their motivation to participate in elections.

We construct an indicator of motivation to vote based on three questions:

1. Willingness to vote in the upcoming election
2. General interest in political events
3. The strength of the relationship with the preferred party or movement (if the participant does prefer any

We find that, in terms of motivation, the Czech public can be divided into three groups:

1. About half (45–55%) of people vote consistently; their participation in parliamentary elections is very likely, and they generally know whom they would vote for.
2. Around a third of the population (30–35%) is uncertain about their participation, hesitates about voting, or is unclear about which party to choose.
3. About one-fifth consists of people who do not vote, with negligible electoral motivation.

People eligible to vote
grouped by motivation to vote in the second half of August 2025 [%]

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

The combined share of Stable Voters and Undecided voters (83% in the second half of August) can be considered the theoretical maximum possible voter turnout achievable in the Czech context. The overview of motivation to participate in elections also serves as the baseline for constructing voter turnout and the electoral model.

WILLINGNESS TO VOTE FOR INDIVIDUAL PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS

In addition to stating direct support for a party or movement in an open-ended question, the research also inquires about willingness to vote for the main Czech political groupings. On a seven-point scale, participants can express the degree of “acceptability” for each of the parties, movements or coalitions.

 Willingness to vote for respective political parties and movements
– second half of August 2025
“If the election for the Chamber of Deputies were held today, would you…”

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

The maximum hypothetical amount of support, the so-called potential for a given grouping, is calculated as the sum of the weights of the votes of those who chose one of the top three answers (“Definitely would vote”, ”Rather would vote” vote and “Maybe would vote”) for this grouping and who also belong to the groups of Stable and Undecided voters.

ELECTION MODEL

It is not easy to build an election model because it is difficult to estimate various parameters: which survey participants will actually participate in the election, whether the voters’ turnout motivation will be similar to the previous election or not, how last-minute emotions will be reflected in the election result and so on.

In surveys, members of the public like to present themselves as responsible citizens: when we pose a direct question, we find that up to 70% of voters want to participate in elections, but the actual turnout does not usually reach that level. Thus, the key to model electoral outcomes and voting patterns is to estimate the behaviour of hesitant and undecided citizens.

We follow a three-step process while calculating the STEM election model.

First, we identify the main groups within the public based on their motivation to vote, as described above. We do not take into account the answers of survey participants identified as Non-voters, and for the remaining two groups (Stable voters and Undecided) we estimate their probability of participation in a hypothetical parliamentary election.

We calculate the likelihood of participation in the election based on the participants’ answers to questions related to their long-term, past, and expected voting behaviour:

a)           long-term tendency to vote,

b)          participation in past parliamentary elections,

c)           declared participation in a hypothetical general election the following week.

This probability ranges from 0 to 1, depending on how strong the participant’s voting motivation is. The weight of each participant’s vote in the model then corresponds to the probability of them turning up to the polls.

By applying the likelihood of participation adjustment to the initial group of Stable Voters, we obtain a new set, which we designate as Loyal Voters. We then treat them as the lower bound of possible support for the respective parties and movements. These are supporters whom a party is very unlikely to lose over the medium term and who can only be shaken by a serious scandal. Loyal Voters also form the foundation of the STEM electoral model, representing two-thirds of the votes. At a modeled turnout of 64%, they contribute approximately 45 percentage points.

The remaining one-third of votes (about 19 percentage points in the second half of August) is contributed to the model by the group of Undecided Voters. For this group, in addition to adjusting for the probability of turnout, we also apply an adjustment for the probability of voting for the parties that the respondent is seriously considering.

Figure of the process of selecting participants for the model

STEM Election Model – simulated election outcome under a modelled turnout of 64%

Second half of August 2025 (results in %)

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

Election model, loyal voters, maximal hypothetical vote share
second half of August 2025 (results in %)

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

SEAT PROJECTION BASED ON THE STEM ELECTION MODEL

We can estimate the number of seats for each political grouping if we apply the legal rules for converting vote shares (as given by the STEM model) into seats in the Chamber of Deputies and estimate voter behaviour patterns in the respective electoral constituencies and the national turnout level.

The seat redistribution system in the Czech Republic traditionally favours parties with the highest share of the vote. This so-called “winner’s bonus” tends to be larger the greater the gap between the leading party and the others. An advantage is also held by parties with evenly distributed support across regions, or by those that perform strongly in the four most populous regions—Moravian-Silesian, South Moravian, Central Bohemian, and Prague—where nearly half (94) of all seats are allocated.

Changes in support over the last couple of weeks show that it is not only shifts in party preferences, but also the number of parties surpassing the five-percent threshold that plays a key role in the results. Moreover, even changes within the margin of statistical error can significantly affect the final distribution of seats. The results of the model should therefore be seen not only as a reflection of the uncertainty of mathematical calculations but also as evidence that, in the Czech electoral system, every vote can count.

According to the current STEM model, the ANO movement continues to dominate clearly, securing 69 seats. For ANO, having fewer parties in the Chamber of Deputies maximizes its seat gain. ANO still maintains an advantage in converting votes into seats; however, compared to previous surveys, the number of seats has declined. This is due not only to a slight weakening of preferences but primarily to another party—Motoristé sobě—crossing the 5% threshold. Since the beginning of the year, it has also been clear that, with this distribution of forces, forming a government without ANO would be practically impossible.

The SPOLU coalition remains in second place, with 46 seats. STAN would gain 20 seats. The Pirates, together with the Greens, are assigned a hypothetical 19 seats.

SPD, including the support of voters from three smaller partner parties, would reach 27 seats. The STAČILO! movement (with SOCDEM’s support) would gain 12 seats. Motorists for Themselves would enter the Chamber according to the current electoral model, narrowly surpassing the five-percent threshold, and would secure 7 seats.

Seat projection in case the STEM election model matched the actual results

– for the second half of August 2025 (200 seats in total)

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

TRENDS IN THE STEM ELECTION MODEL

STEM election model results since the last (2021) general election [%]

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: weeks 1–34, N>1500, CAWI

Note: For parties that were ran as members of electoral coalitions in 2021, we calculated the individual parties’ vote share based on a STEM study undertaken shortly after the 2021 election. *Until October 2024, the result of the SPOLU coalition was measured as the sum of the coalition’s three constituent parties.

**Measured as KSČM until November 2024.

Weekly election model by STEM for 4 biggest parties

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: weeks 1–34, N>1500, CAWI

Weekly election model by STEM for other political parties

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: weeks 1–34, N>1500, CAWI

ELECTION MODEL RESULTS BY SELECTED INDICATORS

We can examine voter behaviour in the election model grouped by generic socio-demographics. It is good to keep in mind that when splitting the election model into demographics, the statistical error also increases, and thus these sub-models should be interpreted with caution.

Election model split by sociodemographic categories
Second half of August 2025 [%]

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

OVERLAPS BETWEEN THE POTENTIAL VOTER BASES OF THE SELECTED PARTIES AND MOVEMENTS

The model shows the current support for the parties, which is made out of, to varying degrees, by loyal and undecided voters. To better understand what is happening in politics, it is useful to assess the relative proximity of the parties, i.e. where each party can potentially gain additional support from.

Source: STEM for CNN Prima News, model 2025: 34, August 2025, N=1548, CAWI

Note: The number under the party name given in the column represents the party’s electoral potential. The numbers in the cells are the shares of participants who belong to the potential of both the party given in the row and the party given in the column.

MAIN FINDINGS

1. STEM is publishing a weekly election model constructed using a methodology that takes into account the increased level of uncertainty and people’s hesitancy to vote.
2. Around one-fifth of the public are non-voters, while two-fifths to one-half usually vote and are often clear about whom they will support. The remaining third are unsure about coming to the polls or unclear about their choice of party. It is this group and the estimation of their voting behaviour that is crucial for voting patterns and the electoral outcome.
3. The model captures the current mood of voters and the possible distribution of forces that would result from hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies if they were held in the second half of August. Campaigns are currently in the summer recess, with parties presenting or finalizing their pre-election programs and preparing for the main campaign in September. A total of 26 parties and movements will ultimately compete in the elections. Registration for postal voting, with just under 25,000 registered, fell short of expectations.
4. The model shows the current support of the parties, which is made out of, to varying degrees by, loyal and undecided voters.
5. Take a note: the election model does not predict the outcome of the actual elections but captures the current mood and estimates how the elections might turn out if they were held now. The pre-election year has always been marked by dynamic developments, and in the weeks leading up to all previous parliamentary elections, there were significant changes in voter preferences.
6. Since the beginning of the year, the ANO movement has ranged between 31% and 36%, and it would currently receive 31.2%. Despite this, the movement shows no significant weakening and remains the main force on the political scene, unthreatened in its position as the leader of opposition votes with a broadly spread voter base. Overlapping voter potentials indicate that several other parties (mainly SPD, Motorists for Themselves, and STAČILO!) may compete for some of ANO’s voters. ANO finds significant support among citizens without a high school diploma and among people over 60 years old. However, it does not experience a pronounced drop in support in any sociodemographic group.
7. Since the beginning of the bitcoin affair, support for the SPOLU coalition has largely stagnated between 20% and 21%. In the current model, the coalition receives 20.9%. However, its growth potential, which had dropped significantly in June, has gradually strengthened again. SPOLU continues to enjoy fairly balanced support across age and gender groups.
8. In the second half of August, the STAN movement would reach just over 10% support. Since the beginning of the year, its support in the STEM model has fluctuated, and its current weakening compared to the earlier level of around 12% is confirmed. STAN’s main voter base is among university-educated individuals, while in the youngest age group, some of its voters are once again drawn to the Pirates in cooperation with the Greens.
9. The governing parties and the Pirates perform well among people with a university degree or a high school diploma, while their position is weaker among those without a high school diploma.
10. The parties of the governing coalition and the Pirates still achieve, in total, a weaker result than in the previous parliamentary elections.
11. In the current model, the SPD movement has, after a longer period, returned to levels around 12–13%. It continues to occupy the position of the main representative of protest votes. SPD shares a large portion of its potential voters primarily with ANO, while it competes for some protest votes mainly with STAČILO!. The movement is traditionally strong among people without a high school diploma and among middle-aged voters.
12. The alliance with the Greens has strengthened the Pirates to the current 8.9%, making their participation in the Chamber of Deputies practically certain. The Pirates continue to rely primarily on the youngest voters.
13. The STAČILO! movement, in cooperation with SOCDEM, currently appeals to 6.5% of voters. Compared to its highest levels in recent weeks, this represents a slight weakening; nevertheless, this result would make their participation in the Chamber of Deputies practically certain if elections were held now—primarily due to a consolidated core of supporters. STAČILO!’s voter base is concentrated mainly in older age groups.
14. Compared to last week, Motoristé sobě have risen to 5.1%, which would just barely be enough for them to enter the Chamber of Deputies. It remains true that, among parties hovering around the threshold for parliamentary entry, Motoristé sobě are the most susceptible to larger fluctuations. The party’s support is largely linked to public events surrounding Filip Turek. Motoristé sobě continue to record their highest preferences among men, particularly in the youngest age group.
15. The Přísaha movement has long fluctuated between 2% and 3%, and currently, with 3.4%, it would achieve one of its best results this year. However, at this level of support, Přísaha would still not enter the Chamber of Deputies.
16. So far, none of the new parties (GEN, the Generace movement, Voluntia, Volt, etc.) have gained traction, and given the short time remaining until the elections, their success on election day is now rather unlikely.
17. The margin of sampling error is approximately ±1 percentage point for smaller parties and ±3.0 percentage points for the largest ones. The results reflect public sentiment at the time of data collection, i.e., in the second half of August 2025.