STEM monitors trust in the Czech Armed Forces and other important state institutions in long-term surveys. Trust in the army has been growing steadily since the 1990s and a similar trend can be observed towards the other main armed force, the Police of the Czech Republic, where trust is also gradually increasing. Since 2020, however, we have observed a gradual trend of declining trust in the army, while trust in the police has stagnated. Since 2020, when both the army and the police had an all-time high of 78 percent trust, trust in the police has fallen to the current 70 percent. The army is worse off and in January had the confidence of 62 per cent of the population. Thus, it could be said that in recent years, as the army became one of the major topics of public debate, trust in it has begun to fall slightly. Recent STEM analyses have shown that attitudes towards the army have become more polarised rather than the issue stemming from a wide decline of confidence.
“In March 2020, about 80 % of respondents trusted the army and it did not matter whether they voted for ODS or SPD, because everyone trusted the army to a similar degree. Somewhere between May 2021 and June 2022, however, something happened and trust in the army began to differ significantly across the supporters of respective parties,” STEM analyst Jiří Táborský said in his presentation to the Defence Committee. He added that this is clearly a trend that has been confirmed by several successive surveys. “Among ODS voters, 81 percent trusted the army in January, and at the other end of the spectrum we have SPD, of whose voters only 36 percent of respondents trusted the military this January,” Táborský said, adding that the police did not experience a similar trend and trust in the police is still distributed evenly. He also specified that the four surveyed political parties were selected on the basis of the number of supporters, as smaller parties did not have a sufficient number of participants in the sample for the numbers to have a stronger explanatory value.
“Do you trust the following institutions? – Army of the Czech Republic / Police of the Czech Republic” [%]
Source: STEM – Trendy (“Trends” regular survey) 1994-2024
“Do you trust the following institutions? – Army of the Czech Republic” by voter alignment [%]
“Do you trust the following institutions? – Police of the Czech Republic” by voter alignment [%]
Finding specific reasons for this split across supporters of political parties is complicated because a number of events have occurred in recent years that have had a significant impact on perceptions of the military. However, the vast majority of the media-significant events (e.g., major acquisitions such as the acquisitions of F-35 jets or the accession of General Karel Řehka to lead the army) did not occur until after the confidence began to diverge. “What is certain is that shortly after the parliamentary elections and the start of the war in Ukraine, the army became a political issue, and political issues are polarising by definition. Moreover, this trend continues and seems to be strengthening. Unfortunately, it is not possible to tell from the data available to us whether this is more due to large army purchases, the often-aggressive rhetoric of the opposition towards not only political representatives of the defence ministry but also the soldiers themselves, or some other factor altogether,” Táborský explains.
STEM representatives also noted to the committee that trust is not just some hypothetical construct. “The reason we survey trust in a number of different institutions is because trust is a basic prerequisite for authority and credibility,” STEM Director Martin Buchtík explained, recalling that the army has helped the Czech public many times in the past, for example during the covid pandemic, during floods, clearing debris after a major 2022 tornado and in other situations. “This cooperation between the civilian and military sectors has worked not only because the army provides necessary equipment, but also because people trust and respect the army. If the military loses that trust, we may have a serious problem in future crises because people simply will not respect the military’s instructions. And it is not just about crises. Without trust in the military, it will be difficult for the military to meet recruitment targets or get the necessary civilian cooperation,” the STEM director says.
Although the decline in trust in the military is apparent, it is good to remember that it is still one of the most trusted institutions in the country. In surveys, it is now topped by the police and regional and municipal authorities, but important political institutions – such as the government or the Chamber of Deputies – have significantly lower levels of trust. “Rather than addressing the overall decline, it now makes more sense to find out why trust in the military is becoming such a polarising issue. Our current data doesn’t tell us much in that regard, but if the military or the Defense Ministry decide to examine the situation more closely, this should be one of the main research questions,” Táborský says. In addition to confidence in the military, the Defense Committee discussed other important data resulting from STEM surveys. “Most of the indicators presented here do not sound very optimistic, but it is good to keep in mind that this is not just about defence and security, but rather about the current societal mood that is being reflected in various areas of our lives,” STEM director Martin Buchtík said in connection with a graph on the Czech population’s overall confidence of whether the situation in the Czech Republic is developing in the right direction. In recent years, over 50 percent of people believe that the situation in the Czech Republic is not going in the right direction, which is where the country was at the height of the economic crisis between 2009 and 2012.
“Do you think that the situation in the Czech Republic is generally going in the right or wrong direction?”
Among other important topics, the Committee discussed a number of findings from a survey conducted by STEM on behalf of the Permanent Representation of the European Commission in the Czech Republic, which also revealed the Czech public’s view on a number of security issues. One of them is the willingness of the Czech public to help the country’s allies in the event of military attack. “It turned out that Czechs in general are mostly willing to help their allies, but the willingness decreases with distance. While 82 per cent of respondents would send troops to help neighbouring Poland, only 65 per cent would do so for the Baltic states,” Táborský explains.
Source: STEM – ZEK 3/2024; figures indicate percentages
The research also confirmed data from previous surveys on the attitude of Czechs towards the war in Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees on the territory of the Czech Republic. It is still true that the majority of Czechs prefer a quick end to the war in Ukraine, even if it meant that Ukraine loses parts of its territory (65%), and at the same time, they support the stay of Ukrainian refugees on Czech territory (55%). Of the possible types of aid, Czechs prefer humanitarian aid and various forms of helping in reconstruction of damaged Ukrainian territory the most, as well as the imposition of sanctions on Russia and restrictions on imports of Russian gas and oil. There is less support for the export of arms to Ukraine and the least support for negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
“To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following steps of the EU countries relating to the war in Ukraine?”
Source: STEM – ZEK 3/2024; figures indicate percentages
The survey also covered possible forms of military assistance to Ukraine, with the highest public support for intelligence sharing and for keeping Western armies on alert at the borders with Russia and Ukraine. Half of the people are in favour of training Ukrainian soldiers and there is minimal support for direct involvement in combat.
“There are several options on how to approach the issue of the participation of NATO armed forces, including Czech ones, in the war in Ukraine. Which forms of participation do you support?”
Source: STEM – ZEK 3/2024; figures indicate percentages
“From our point of view, a pair of questions on the Czech initiative of ‘800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine’ yielded interesting and surprising results. Although the data was collected after the initiative had been running for a long time and had been repeatedly supported by the President, nearly 40 percent of people had not heard of it,” Táborský said. He added that the support of less than 40 percent of the population for the initiative roughly reflects the overall support for sending weapons to Ukraine, so it is not that surprising. “In our opinion, the explanation for the low awareness of the initiative is that people see it as more weapons for Ukraine and do not distinguish that this is something extraordinary,” Táborský concluded.
The cited research by the STEM research institute (www.stem.cz) was carried out on representative samples of the Czech population over 18 years of age at various points in time, primarily during the year 2024. The participants answered questions delivered by a combination of online and face-to-face interviews (CAWI+CAPI).
