Joint Post-election Case Study by SIMAR Agencies: Echoes of the 2025 Elections
Last year, the STEM Analytical Institute established a collaborative partnership with five distinguished public opinion research agencies—KANTAR, IPSOS, MEDIAN, NMS, and Data Collect. These entities, all renowned for their pre-election polling, are united under the industry oversight body, SIMAR. A consensus was reached to conduct a collaborative study analyzing the outcomes and broader context of the recent parliamentary elections; the conclusions of this initiative are presented in the comprehensive report. Each participating entity authored a distinct thematic chapter, and this document presents a commentary on STEM’s findings regarding the electoral behavior of the Czech public across diverse sociodemographic strata. The full report is accessible via the link provided at the conclusion of this article.
President Petr Pavel and Prime Minister Andrej Babiš Enjoy the Confidence of a Majority of the Public
Almost three-fifths of citizens state that they trust President Petr Pavel (57%). Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is also trusted by an absolute majority of citizens (55%). Both constitutional officials currently hold high support—by Czech standards—and possess significant political capital. Senate President Miloš Vystrčil and Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Tomio Okamura also maintain solid support at nearly forty percent, however, among the highest constitutional officials, Tomio Okamura has the strongest group of opponents. Attitudes toward constitutional officials are significantly conditioned by voting behavior and political preferences.
The strongest theme of this election year is the consolidation of political forces
Since the beginning of 2025, the STEM analytical institute, in cooperation with CNN Prima NEWS, has been offering the public a new election model for the Chamber of Deputies elections every week. The latest model was published on Sunday, September 28, and captured the distribution of public opinion in the nine days leading up to the elections. In the following report, we summarize what the models show about the elections themselves, what led to the current situation this year, and what may still happen in the less than a week remaining before the elections.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – AUGUST 2025 – Weekly election model – week 34
The STEM research institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of August.
The development of support for all political parties since the beginning of the year has been, not only in STEM models, very modest so far. The main dynamics in this year’s pre-election campaign have so far been driven by the alliances forming around SPD, STAČILO!, and the Pirates. About a month before the elections, we are entering the main phase of the campaign, which may—and likely will—bring a greater dynamic, culminating on election day itself. After all, roughly two-fifths of people declare that they decide whether to participate in the election only a month before the elections, and similarly, up to half of those who turn out only choose their favored party in the final month.
If parliamentary elections were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, securing 31% of the vote. The movement has slightly weakened compared to the beginning of the year. Despite the bitcoin affair, the SPOLU coalition still holds second place, remaining just under 21% support. SPD, in cooperation with three smaller parties, stays in third place with nearly 13%. STAN would currently receive 10% of the vote. Support for the Pirates, in cooperation with the Greens, is almost 9%. The STAČILO! movement, in alliance with SOCDEM, has weakened to 6.5%. After a longer period, Motoristé sobě would reach 5%, placing them at the threshold required to enter the Chamber of Deputies.
Election Model: Sociodemographic Relationships in the Second Quarter of 2025
The STEM research institute has been continuously monitoring the development of Czech public voting preferences since the beginning of 2025. This press release is based on a combined dataset from the electoral model prepared for CNN Prima NEWS. The data comes from twelve waves of surveys on voting preferences conducted between March 24 and June 17, covering more than seven thousand responses. This makes it possible to provide a detailed view of differences in voter behavior across regions and various sociodemographic groups.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public July 2025 – Weekly election model – week 30
The STEM research institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of July.
If parliamentary elections were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, securing just under 32% of the vote. However, the movement’s support has slightly weakened compared to the beginning of the year. Despite the bitcoin affair, the SPOLU coalition still holds second place, remaining just under 21%. In third place, with nearly 14%, is the SPD movement in cooperation with three smaller parties.
STAN has fluctuated around 12% in recent weeks but would now receive just 10%. Support for the Pirates, in cooperation with the Greens, is at this year’s peak, just above 8%. The STAČILO! movement, newly in alliance with SOCDEM, has strengthened in recent weeks to over 7%. Motoristé sobě would now receive slightly over 4%, remaining below the threshold required to enter the Chamber of Deputies.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – June 2025 – Weekly election model – week 25
The STEM Research Institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of June.
If elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, gaining around 32 percent of the vote. However, the movement has slightly weakened compared to the beginning of the year. Despite the Bitcoin scandal, the SPOLU coalition still holds second place and has stopped its decline at just under 21 percent. In third place, with 13 percent, remains the SPD movement in cooperation with three smaller parties. The STAN movement hovered around 10 percent in June and is now slightly above that threshold. Support for the Pirates, now in cooperation with the Greens, is at its highest level this year, just below 8 percent. The Motoristé sobě party has resumed its growth in recent weeks and is just below the 5 percent threshold needed to enter the Chamber. On the other hand, the STAČILO! movement has gradually weakened and, after some time, has fallen below this threshold.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – MAY 2025 – Weekly election model – week 21
The STEM Research Institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of May.
If elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin with around 32% of the vote. However, the movement has slightly weakened compared to the beginning of the year. The SPOLU coalition remains in second place and has gradually strengthened to about 22% in recent weeks. In third place, the SPD movement, in cooperation with three smaller parties, has settled at nearly 13%. STAN has slightly gained in May and is now just above 11%. Support for the Pirates has fluctuated between 5% and 7% since the beginning of the year, currently just over 6%. STAČILO! also remains above the 5% threshold, with its support remaining relatively stable. Motoristé sobě have weakened below the 5% threshold necessary for entry into the Chamber of Deputies in recent weeks, with their results being quite volatile.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – April 2025 – Weekly election model – week 17
The STEM Research Institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of april.
If elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, receiving around 31 percent of the vote. However, the movement has slightly weakened compared to the beginning of the year. The SPOLU coalition has stagnated at 20% in recent weeks and still holds second place. The situation among the remaining parties is more fluid. In third place, with just under 13%, is the SPD movement, cooperating with three smaller parties. The STAN movement gradually weakened in April and is now just below 10%. Support for the Pirates has fluctuated between 5 and 7% since the beginning of the year, and they would currently slightly exceed 6%. The STAČILO! movement is at a similar level, with its support remaining relatively stable. Motoristé sobě has weakened in recent weeks and fallen below the 5% threshold needed to enter the Chamber – their results are also rather volatile.
Electoral tendencies of the Czech public – March 2025 – Weekly election model – week 12
The STEM Research Institute has been monitoring the development of voting preferences on a weekly basis since the beginning of the year. We now present a more detailed report on the situation in the second half of march.
If elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the ANO movement would win by a large margin, securing around 31 percent of the vote. However, the movement’s support has been gradually weakening throughout March. In contrast, the SPOLU coalition has been gaining ground in March and would come in second with 20 percent. The situation for other parties is also shifting. The STAN movement slightly strengthened again in March and is just below 12 percent. The SPD stabilized its support just under 9 percent, though the current model does not yet account for its alliance with Trikolora, PRO, and Svobodní. The Motoristé sobě party has recently gained support above the 5 percent threshold required to enter the Chamber and is building up its voter base. Also hovering above the five-percent threshold is the STAČILO! movement, whose support has remained relatively stable. Support for the Pirates has fluctuated between 5 and 7 percent since the beginning of the year, and they would now reach just under 6 percent.
